A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month (or maybe two), I am reading Debt: The First 5,000 Years. If you follow me on Twitter or my prior books you will notice that the Debt topic is top of mind. This is because I think we are nearing some sort of major reset and I want to gain as much knowledge as possible on the history around this topic because no humans alive today have lived through what I think is coming which is a major global debt reset and/or hyperinflation to reduce debt levels. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to Debt: The First 5,000 Years For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
Great Op Ed from Bill Dudley, worth your time to read in full - Link
My key takeways: (i) the 2020 -2021 period is over (ii) buying the dip now could get you killed (iii) current market participants were not born or not old enough to be relevant during prior eras of inflation like we now face (iv) the Fed is late in reacting and the end result is probably going to be tanking markets, and accounts in the interim---even though they may come back in and bail things out, eventually...
This is one of the best podcasts on the inner workings of the monetary system changes we are living through in real time that I have heard, it is a video podcast and well worth you time. Yes, the topic will impact digital assets and also the paper in your pockets! ⬇️ Link
I specifically call out this podcast for anyone interested to understand what the seizure of central bank reserves and sanctioning central banks will mean over the medium term as the "unintended consequences" begin to play out globally.
"Currencies are not born reserve currencies, they grow up to be reserve currencies"
-Zoltan Pozsar
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Coinbase is reportedly planning to acquire 2TM, the owner of Brazil's largest crypto exchange - Link
2. Cross River Bank, a "crypto-first" banking company, raised $620 million from Andreessen Horowitz, Eldridge Industries and others - Link
3. ZkLend, a money market protocol building on StarkNet, raised $5 million from Three Arrows, StarkWare and others. - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
“They have money for war but can’t feed the poor.”
- Tupac Shakur
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
- EU to Vote on Revised Regulation Targeting Crypto Transfers - Link
2. (SEC) aims to redefine definition of securities dealer – a move industry experts say could cripple the DeFi industry - Link
3. Polygon unveils identity service leveraging zero-knowledge proofs - Link
4. Visa launches program to help creators navigate NFTs - Link
5. Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has selected BNY Mellon as its primary custodian for USDC's reserve assets - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
We are seeing a continued turn in Bitcoin's on-chain data. As you can see since January the Closing price each market day for Bitcoin has done better this week but still within the overall choppy trend. We are now just about back to where Bitcoin was during the first days of January. I remain bearish short term but I will now officially state that I will personally be dipping my toes back in over the next few months but not buying today I am currently planning to take a hard look during the May / June time frame. I am not a FOMO person and have developed my own risk management in the crypto space and I highly recommend you do the same for your specific financial goals and situation. If there is anything dramatic that changes I may send out a flash update.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. I do not think we are at the trough point but as I have said before--the world has never had Bitcoin during a "great power war" nor during Stagflation 1940s and/or 1970s style. If you have not--make sure to checkout my video on "Inflation" from Q4 21--it remains more relevant than ever.
Bitcoin: Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between all coins moved at a profit and at a loss. I added this metric back to provide some context from the realized profit in November 2021 until today. You can see here where the holders of Bitcoin sit now relative to November 2021 and from my perspective---people cheering "crypto is back" are potentially premature.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH has also continued to move week over week but overall is still chopping around. As I said above, I remain bearish from a price perspective but I am paying closer attention to the on-chain data starting today. On the tech development side there is tons of good stuff still happening as migration to proof of stake continues.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
DeFI TVL has oscillated this week to $81 Billion down from $91 Billion last week. I am still on the sidelines watching for now because I think the last weeks "risk on" was a tech bubble filled "head fake". Maybe I am wrong and DeFI is on the rebound--in truth, no one knows. My opinion remains this big bounces in DeFI is a head fake. From my perspective, how can it be anything more than a head fake given the broader macro and regulatory backdrop. Time will tell.
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
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