A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month (or maybe two), I am reading Debt: The First 5,000 Years. If you follow me on Twitter or my prior books you will notice that the Debt topic is top of mind. This is because I think we are nearing some sort of major reset and I want to gain as much knowledge as possible on the history around this topic because no humans alive today have lived through what I think is coming which is a major global debt reset and/or hyperinflation to reduce debt levels. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to Debt: The First 5,000 Years For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
I do not know who this person is but their post came up in the general feed. The interesting this is that this type of anecdotal data point is often a leading indicator and faster than even the news. We can see below the mainstream news later corroborated the tweet. Go back to my December 6th 2021 newsletter on you will see I started the whole "Fed is going to tank things warning". - Link
I tweeted a few weeks ago an open question--what will be the public's reaction when they realize the reason for their invest accounts "round trip" is the Fed? I think we will find out no later than July 2022 and the way things are look--potentially much, much sooner - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Ellis, a neobank focused on immigrants to the United States, raised $5.6 million from Kindred Ventures, Castle Island Ventures, Balaji Srinivasan and others. - Link
2. Robinhood has agreed to acquire Ziglu, a U.K. based crypto platform, for an undisclosed sum. - Link
3. Bit Digital, a Bitcoin mining firm, has filed a prospectus with the SEC to raise up to $500 million in equity. - Link
4. Tower 26 has launched a $50 million fund for metaverse and VR gaming. - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
"Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action."
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Fidelity to Launch Crypto Focused ETFs - Link
2. U.S. Treasury sanctions Russian bitcoin miners - Link
3. Australia will list a 2nd BTC ETF and an ETH ETF on April 27th - Link
4. Bit Digital, a Bitcoin mining firm, has filed a prospectus with the SEC to raise up to $500 million in equity. - Link
5. MetaMask advises users to disable automatic iCloud backups in wake of iCloud Hacks - Link
6. Binance.US has left the Blockchain Association due to a difference in "values, goals and standards" - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
We are all seeing continued chop in Bitcoin's on-chain data. See this same chart for last week where I noted that it was approaching the highs from early January--it did not last. We continue to see bearish week over week price performance--regardless of twitter narratives (some of which are valid, just not reflected in price). I continue to remain bearish short term but as I have previously stated that I am planning to take a hard look during the May / June time frame.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. I still do not think we are at the trough point. If you compare to last week the 1m-3m bands, 3m-6m and 6m-12m have all notched up when mean more selling in the relative short term group that bought the various headlines we have all seen over the last twelve months.
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is still chopping around just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is off the highs of the prior weeks which was already a lower high comparing year to date. I remain bearish from a price perspective but I am paying closer attention to the on-chain data in preparation for a Summer buying opportunity. What I am noodling over is the broader macro backdrop I have been discussing for months--in this context I am not sure the merge and its supply dynamics will matter in the short term. For example, in a real risk off scenario everything will sell off but that will be the time to buy the protocol at a discount while most panic sell the lows. I am not interested to try and time that point and therefore remain content to watch, wait.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
Week over week you can see the same story in DeFI with chop between 75 Billion and 84 Billion at the high. This week is down slightly (2 Billion roughly) from last week.
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
Products I Personally Use and Support
Green Tea Tidbits:
The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
This Newsletter does not provide, and no portion of this content purports to be, individualized or specific investment advice and I do not provide investment advice. All information provided herein is general in nature and is made without regard to individual levels of sophistication or investment experience, investment preferences, objectives or risk parameters and without regard to the suitability of the content for individuals or entities who may access it.
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