A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets read "Daylight Robbery by Dominic Frisby. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: Daylight Robbery For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
This is a major development. DTCC is the settlement layer and mechanism for all equities traded in the US. It will soon become clear to everyone that the Gov's sole goal all along was to slow crypto development down long enough for "their" existing players to catchup and take it over. - Link
You know things are bad when some legal aid criminal lawyers ( called "Barristers" in the UK) are striking for pay raises, sheesh - Link
How Australia plans to protect crypto investors from themselves - Link
Tethers Independent Audit Report of Reserves - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Malaysian bank, Kenang, works on crypto-friendly ‘super app’ with Ant Group tech - Link
2. CME Group to Add ETH Options Ahead of the Ethereum Merge - Link
3. .bit, a cross-chain decentralized identity protocol, raised $13 million from CMB International, HashKey, GSR and others - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
"Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action."
- Benjamin Disraeli
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Bitcoin Price Dips Below $20 (ruh roh shaggy) - Link
2. Stablecoin issuers hold more US debt than Berkshire Hathaway - Link
3. EU Crypto Lobby Fights MiCA Limits on US Dollar Stablecoins - Link
4. Samsung Securities planning to roll out crypto exchanges in South Korea - Link
5. How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto - Link
6. Mastercard: We're working with Binance to let people pay with crypto at 90m+ stores that accept Mastercard - Link
7. SCB10X cancels planned investment in BitKub (see my prior newsletter on the "pause") - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. We had a slight bounce this week that you can see above. I reiterate--I continue to remain bearish but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion. "And miles to go before we sleep..."
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward
$15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Keep you eye on all the various corporate developments this coming week from earnings to economic data and then the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes on 27 July 2022--capping it off w/ US GDP numbers on 28 July 2022. The next few weeks will be very interesting--buckle up!
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup. I know the merge is coming but I personally think we see ETH back around $500 for a spell.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a more meaningful drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use trending downward post FinCEN regulations in the US. As I have been saying for well over a year. When all is said and done I fully expect national governments to co-opt and regulate this tech, call it their own and force us all into their system of tracking every transaction. See my book of the month for a broader roadmap on that topic.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL is up a few billion this week but still in a downward trend directionally. I think we have a number of quarters to go still before things clear up. This does not mean we will not see some pops along the way.
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
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