A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets read "Daylight Robbery by Dominic Frisby. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: Daylight Robbery For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
Stall for time, run out the clock and hand the industry to existing big bank players - Link
Your overlord (the State) wants full control and visibility into all financial transactions in real time w/ a Fed Now Account - Link
Galaxy Digital Has Backed Out of Acquiring BitGo (this is one of the biggest developments of this year) - Link
EU is setting up a new Crypto AML regulator (surprise, surprise) - Link
I consider this a bad sign. If you think of a mortgage as just an "installment loan" then a 50 year term means are you likely going to (i) die still paying off your home and (ii) pay so much in interest over the life that the deal only makes sense for the bank. - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Robinhood Slashes Offer To Buy Crypto Exchange Ziglu from $170 million to $72.5 million - Link
2. CME Group to Add ETH Options Ahead of the Ethereum Merge - Link
3. .bit, a cross-chain decentralized identity protocol, raised $13 million from CMB International, HashKey, GSR and others - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
“In the business world, allegations of accounting irregularities is tantamount to yelling fire in a crowded theater, except, today, in our Internet world, instead of people running for the exit signs, they just push the button on their computer.”
– Jeffrey Skilling , CEO of Enron
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Genesis CEO Michael Moro steps down from role effective immediately - Link
2. Analysis: What is and what is not a sanctionable entity in the Tornado Cash case - Link
3. Nearly $55M worth of Bored Ape, CryptoPunks NFTs risk liquidation amid debt crisis - Link
4. Over $540M Liquidated as Bitcoin, Ethereum Plummet - Link
5. Hodlnaut cuts 80% of staff, applies for Singapore judicial management - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. We had a slight bounce this week that you can see above. I reiterate--I continue to remain bearish but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion. "And miles to go before we sleep..."
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward
$15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Keep you eye on all the various corporate developments this coming week from earnings to economic data and then the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes on 27 July 2022--capping it off w/ US GDP numbers on 28 July 2022. The next few weeks will be very interesting--buckle up!
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup. I know the merge is coming but I personally think we see ETH back around $500 for a spell.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a small drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use. It seems the market is speaking at least from a US KYC perspective that people (in spite of what they say about decentralization) want a single counter-party that can be trusted to hold the peg to cash. Lets see how this plays out over time.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL is up a few billion this week but still in a downward trend directionally. I think we have a number of quarters to go still before things clear up. This does not mean we will not see some pops along the way.
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
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The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
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