A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
I started on this new book on January 9, 2022 and listed it in my newsletter there. I am almost finished with this book and will include a review withing the next week or so in the Library section of the website. If you are interesting in understanding history to get a sense of where the world may be going, I think you will enjoy reading this book (or listening) along with me! I will have a short write-up about the book under the Library section of the website after I finish the book. Audiobook link below if you prefer to listen.
Listen to this book for free with Audible The Changing World Order
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
In my opinion, the meme below says it all. In fact is was so apropos, I had to change the cover image of this week's edition because it encapsulates everything that the Fed and government's want--- so perfectly. This meme represents the entire point of policy makers at this junction. There is no modern system of organized humans where the majority is ever "allowed" to gain the income level or financial freedom of those at the top. Not in Victorian Era England nor post revolutionary America--nowhere on earth historically or currently.
I am not saying this is "right" but what I am saying is that history has a lot to tell us about these periods of time. Remember the Dot Com bubble--this period is very similar in some respects. To be crystal clear--I want the major of people to have the level of financial freedom that will allow them to live their lives on their own terms. To me, it is crystal clear that the "system" does not share this same goal.
For more context, see my Youtube Video titled, Inflation. Pay careful attention where I discuss "Demand Pull Inflation". This is, in part, what policy makers need to tamp down---fast.
Below is an excerpt of my notes of the Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference January 26, 2022. March is a "live" or "hot" meeting. Link to the full transcript below.
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
- Anchorage Digital Bank, the First Federally Chartered Digital Asset Bank - Link
- Gemini Exchange Affiliate, Gemini Galactic, approved for FINRA membership -Link
- JP Morgan Chase has apparently as closed all bank accounts of Uniswap founder Hayden Adams from their "platform" (remember the money have in the bank is not actually yours) - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
“The poor and the rich quarrel with one another, and whichever side gets the better, instead of establishing a just or popular government, regards political supremacy as the prize of victory.”
- Aristotle as quoted by Ray Dalio in the book of the month, Changing World Order, pg 92
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
- Gibraltar Could Launch the World’s First Crypto Stock Exchange - Link
- A computer engineer cracked a Trezor hardware wallet - Link
- Crypto Lending Firms Celsius Network, Gemini Face SEC Scrutiny - Link
- Ethereum 2.0 Has Been Rebranded to the "Consensus Layer" - Link
- Ripple Buys Out Their Series C Investors (after being sued by their lead investor) - Link
- YouTube May Exploring NFTs for Creators - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
Two weeks ago I introduced the OHLC chart for Bitcoin which shows the Open, High, Low and Closing price. In the chart above last week I have pulled the year over year chart from 01 January 2022 to 30 January 2022. Specifically, if you are relatively new to Bitcoin and bought the top in 2021 you are more likely to be down, just about 50 percent. Longer term holders that would have entered at much lower prices but we can see that many folks sold during the 19 January to 24 January time frame. As I have been saying here since December 2021, the possible shift in the central bank's stance is a major X factor that I am not sure people fully account for. See my additional comments on policy excerpted from the Fed transcript above---I strong suggest you take the time to read the entire transcript. TL:DR Fed is looking to slow things down, it's just a question of how, how fast and whether they make some additional mistake at this point.
I will repeat what I said last week. "If the Fed follows through on their actions, coupled with a generation of investor (mostly Gen Z and Millennial) that has discovered investing in 2020---they are likely in for this generation's Dot Com moment, among other things, in my opinion." I do not consider myself a "chart" or "technical analysis" person-- I follow no dogma. However, it is useful to show the charts to get a sense of what other people are looking at. I will leave you with what I am currently thinking about in both Bitcoin ( and Crypto writ large) and traditional markets--what if the bounce on Friday was just that--a head fake? Answer: I have no idea, but prudent is the order of the day given the shifting global environment.
Bitcoin: Exchange Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges - All Exchanges
The difference of in volume flowing into exchanges and out of exchanges, i.e. the net flow of coins into/out of exchanges. Note that exchange metrics are based on our labeled data of exchange addresses that we constantly keep updating, as well as data science techniques and statistical information that changes over time. Therefore these metrics are mutable – the data is stable, but especially most recent data points are subject to slight fluctuations as time progresses.
Ethereum: Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges - All Exchanges
I have provided this chart for Bitcoin as well above. The difference of in volume flowing into exchanges and out of exchanges, i.e. the net flow of coins into/out of exchanges. Note that exchange metrics are based on our labeled data of exchange addresses that we constantly keep updating, as well as data science techniques and statistical information that changes over time. Therefore these metrics are mutable – the data is stable, but especially most recent data points are subject to slight fluctuations as time progresses.
You can see here that Ethereum is showing a divergence from Bitcoin which has outflows. Meanwhile, people are selling down Ethereum---note the green peaks above represent Ethereum moving into Exchanges which is generally to exit Crypto.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
DeFI markets showing a large dip from last week. I think folks finally "gotten the memo" of the policy change freight train that is barrelling towards them. I personally still think there is much more potential for pain ahead since we have not actually seen any global policy changes---only talk. However, as someone who has been active through all the various crypto cycles since 2015---now is a good time to get educated and keep up to date on developments. The fair weather friends will be back after things turn upward.
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This Newsletter does not provide, and no portion of this content purports to be, individualized or specific investment advice and I do not provide investment advice. All information provided herein is general in nature and is made without regard to individual levels of sophistication or investment experience, investment preferences, objectives or risk parameters and without regard to the suitability of the content for individuals or entities who may access it.
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