A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets mix it up a bit with The Smartest Guys in the Room by Bethany McLean. I am excited to read this book which details to rise and fall of energy giant Enron. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: The Smartest Guys in the Room For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
In light of all the turmoil, I want to highlight what I think will be a bright light in the future. The launch of the Starkeware StarkNet Token - Link
The Treasury Makes the Case that CBDCs help manage financial stability (what could go wrong) - Link
Sri Lanka is increasingly looking like the Canary in the coal mine - Link
BlockFi Stocks Accepting GBTC As Collateral - Link
3AC is playing a game of "Catch Me If You Can" with their creditors - Link
SCB which is known for SCB10X (the VC arm of the bank) will be "reassessing" their investment--- this always happens at this part in the cycle before "corporate VCs" back out of deals and exit the market totally. Only to repeat the process in 5 to 10 years - Link
Swiss Post to Offer Crypto Trading and Custody--even though we have a market downturn development continues - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Multi Coin Capital Announced $430M Fund III - Link
2. Safe (f.k.a. Gnosis Safe), a provider of multi-sig wallets and other digital asset management solutions, raised $100 million 1kx, Tiger, Lightspeed, DCG and others - Link
3. Animoca Brands, an NFT and metaverse gaming focused investor, raised $75 million at a $5.9 billion valuation from Liberty City Ventures, 10T, Kingsway and others - Link
4. UnCaged Studios, a web3 game developer, raised $24 million from Griffin Gaming Partners, Drive by DraftKings, 6th Man Ventures and others - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
"War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means." - Carl von Clausewitz.
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Projects on Terra are migrating over to Polygon - Link
2. 42% of Coinbase's assets are BTC - Link
3. New York Federal Reserve Advisory Council Met This Week (downloadable details in the link) - Link
4. Biden Admin's "Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets" Request for Comments is out now - Link
5. Immutable X Will Allow Ether-to-Dollar Withdrawals using payment provider Moonpay - Link
6. Banking Circle to put USDC stablecoins onto its payment rails: A key step in democratizing global finance - Link
7. Interesting Terra Luna 2.0 Speculation on their current shenanigans - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. We had a slight bounce this week that you can see above. I reiterate--I continue to remain bearish but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward
$15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Keep you eye on all the various corporate developments this coming week from earnings to economic data and then the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes on 27 July 2022--capping it off w/ US GDP numbers on 28 July 2022. The next few weeks will be very interesting--buckle up!
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup. I know the merge is coming but I personally think we see ETH back around $500 for a spell.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a small drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use. It seems the market is speaking at least from a US KYC perspective that people (in spite of what they say about decentralization) want a single counter-party that can be trusted to hold the peg to cash. Lets see how this plays out over time.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL is flat this week but still in a downward trend
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
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Green Tea Tidbits:
The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
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