A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets mix it up a bit with The Smartest Guys in the Room by Bethany McLean. I am excited to read this book which details to rise and fall of energy giant Enron. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: The Smartest Guys in the Room For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
There are a lot of directional public statement from various governments this week.
I consider this speech the single most important macro economic development to take place this week. The worlds central bankers are telling you that they are worried and the party is over. Must Watch Below - Link
Sintra Portugal ECB Forum
Biden may introduce stablecoin regulation this year. If so expect a global compliance impact given that all major banks (ex-Russia) are a part of the SWIFT system - Link
From a Macro Economic perspective this is one of the more important articles telegraphing the new world we must all grapple with. I am not a macro economic guru but there is key information (in my opinion) in particular press that is placed there for a reason. Forewarned is forearmed - Link
3AC ordered to liquidate - Link
The Bank of International Settlements Annual Economic Report of 2022 is out and has enough impact that I will do a video on this topic - Link
So while much of the general public is having a "chicken little" moment - Goldman Sachs is looking to buy into Crypto on the cheap --please take note of what big money is doing - Link
FTX is reportedly trying to buy Robinhood (although the have denied this) - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. FTX to buy BlockFi (the on again off again deal seems on) - Link
2. Kaiko, a French blockchain analytics firm, raised $53 million from Eight Roads, Revaia, Alven, and others - Link
3. Peaq, a provider of infrastructure and tooling for decentralized applications, raised $6 million from Fundamental Labs and others. - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
“Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.”
— Henry Kissinger
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Anonymous vows to bring Do Kwon’s ‘crimes’ to light - Link
2. Voyager Digital Issues Notice of Default to 3AC - Link
3. Institutional crypto asset products saw record weekly outflows of $423M - Link
4. CoinFLEX plans new token to raise funds days after halting withdrawals - Link
5. Celsius Provides an update on their financial status - Link
6. SEC denied Grayscale's application to convert GBTC to a spot Bitcoin ETF, with Grayscale indicating immediately after the decision that they are filing a lawsuit - Link Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. I continue to remain bearish but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward $15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Forewarned is forearmed.
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a small drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use. It seems the market is speaking at least from a US KYC perspective that people (in spite of what they say about decentralization) want a single counter-party that can be trusted to hold the peg to cash. Lets see how this plays out over time.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL is flat this week but still in a downward trend
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
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Disclaimer:
This Newsletter does not provide, and no portion of this content purports to be, individualized or specific investment advice and I do not provide investment advice. All information provided herein is general in nature and is made without regard to individual levels of sophistication or investment experience, investment preferences, objectives or risk parameters and without regard to the suitability of the content for individuals or entities who may access it.
No information provided herein, should be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment vehicle, nor should it be construed as tailored or specific to you, or any reader or consumer thereof. You understand and agree that the content does not constitute specific recommendations of any particular investment, security, portfolio, transaction or strategy, nor does it recommend any specific course of action is suitable for any specific person or entity or group of persons or entities.
The content herein is based upon information from sources believed to be reliable and I am not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information; nor is it responsible for the accuracy or authenticity of the information upon which I rely. For informational purposes only. Do your own research.
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