A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets mix it up a bit with The Smartest Guys in the Room by Bethany McLean. I am almost finished with this book which details to rise and fall of energy giant Enron. Be on the lookout for a new book next week. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: The Smartest Guys in the Room For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
Gary Ginsler has a bone to pick (you think?) - Link
The FT is a Business Focused UK based newspaper (similar to the WSJ in the US), I like them because it gives a bit more global perspective. Thus, this opinion piece should be read by anyone in crypto for what it could mean - Link
Starbucks Unveils its Web3 Rewards Program - Link
Whilst most people think all manufacturing and production comes from China, in fact, for high end its and chemicals (Google BASF) Germany provides quite a large number of supply chain inputs - Link
Senate may treat Bitcoin and ETH as Commodities (this is the Gov picking winners IMHO) - Link
Robinhood to Slash Headcount 23% (the same users of Robinhood in Meme Stocks days were DeGen Crypto Traders) - Link
KKR - One of the largest publicly traded private equity firms reported its largest quarterly loss since 2020. Pay special attention to the section I have highlighted below - Link
What Is the IMF saying about global growth? - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Ledger Seeks New Funding at Higher Valuation - Link
2. Virginia pension fund invests in crypto lending in bid to boost returns - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
“The best way to destabilize the capitalist system [is] to debauch the currency”
- Vladimir Ilʹich Lenin
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Aave DAO Approves Crypto-Backed Stablecoin GHO - Link
2. Software Giant Oracle Taps InfStones for Web3 Development Platform - Link
3. Michael Saylor to step down as MicroStrategy CEO - Link
4. Solana exploit enters second day as CEO points to attack on Apple hot wallets - Link
5. Coinbase Asks Supreme Court to Halt Account Holder Suits - Link
6. SCB 10X, has promoted two female executives to lead its Web, DeFi and Blockchain investments - Link
7. Coinbase + BlackRock Partnership - Link
8. Arthur Hayes Latest Piece on Medium - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. We had a slight bounce this week that you can see above. I reiterate--I continue to remain bearish but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward
$15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Keep you eye on all the various corporate developments this coming week from earnings to economic data and then the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes on 27 July 2022--capping it off w/ US GDP numbers on 28 July 2022. The next few weeks will be very interesting--buckle up!
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup. I know the merge is coming but I personally think we see ETH back around $500 for a spell.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a small drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use. It seems the market is speaking at least from a US KYC perspective that people (in spite of what they say about decentralization) want a single counter-party that can be trusted to hold the peg to cash. Lets see how this plays out over time.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL is flat this week but still in a downward trend
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
Products I Personally Use and Support
Green Tea Tidbits:
The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
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