A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets mix it up a bit with The Smartest Guys in the Room by Bethany McLean. I am excited to read this book which details to rise and fall of energy giant Enron. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: The Smartest Guys in the Room For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
The El Salvador experiment was interesting but it has failed - Link
So it begins (you knew this was coming) - Link
Walmart is a great barometer of the "average" US consumer because they sell everything from food to electronics - Link
Mark Cuban on the SEC Regulation of Crypto - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. California to allow state and local offices to raise funds using crypto - Link
2. Unstoppable Domains Raises $65 Million To Make Website Domains Into NFTs - Link
3. Nomura, CoinShares and Ledger will offer institutional services for bitcoin and other digital assets - Link
4. Aptos Labs Raises $150M (Launched by Former Meta Employees) for Diem Blockchain- Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
- Jean-Claude Juncker, Former prime minister of Luxembourg and the EU’s longest serving leader
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. US CFTC to Intensify Crypto Work With New Tech Innovation Office - Link
2. US Bill To Regulate Crypto Delayed - Link
3. Kraken under US Sanctions Investigation - Link
4. Mercedes Benz launches blockchain-based data sharing platform - Link
5. Gods Unchained developer Immutable lays off around 8% of staff - Link
6. Algorand CEO Steps Down to Pursue ‘Other Interests’ - Link
7. Ethereum Deploys Its Tenth 'Shadow Fork' in Buildup to Merge - Link
8. Zipmex, a South East Asia based crypto exchange, filed for "moratorium" (i.e., bankruptcy) in Singapore - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. We had a slight bounce this week that you can see above. I reiterate--I continue to remain bearish but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward
$15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Keep you eye on all the various corporate developments this coming week from earnings to economic data and then the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes on 27 July 2022--capping it off w/ US GDP numbers on 28 July 2022. The next few weeks will be very interesting--buckle up!
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup. I know the merge is coming but I personally think we see ETH back around $500 for a spell.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a small drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use. It seems the market is speaking at least from a US KYC perspective that people (in spite of what they say about decentralization) want a single counter-party that can be trusted to hold the peg to cash. Lets see how this plays out over time.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL is flat this week but still in a downward trend
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
Products I Personally Use and Support
Green Tea Tidbits:
The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
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