A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
🎥🔥 My Youtube Content 🎥🔥
📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month lets mix it up a bit with Quiet by Susan Cain. In a world of social media and instant gratification this is a great book about the power of introversion and what we can learn from the habits and behavior of introverted people and leaders. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to: Quiet For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
Alot of the Crypto carnage this week we feed into by the blowup of 3 Arrows Capital (stay positive and keep cash on hand, this shall pass over time) - Link
A Memo to the Celsius Community (SMH) - Link
And the hits keep coming - Link
Crypto Markets Keep Plunging - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Molecule, a decentralized medical research platform, raised $13 million from Northpond Ventures and others. - Link
2. ScienceMagic.Studios, an advisor for web3 and NFT startups, raised $10.3 million from DCG, Coinbase, Alan Howard and others. - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
“The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change” ― Heraclitus
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Celsius exodus: $320M in crypto sent to FTX, user withdrawals paused - Link
2. Nexo Proposes Buyout of Celsius Assets as Crypto Lending Rival Halts Withdrawals - Link
3. BlockFi Cuts Staff 20% - Link
4. Layoffs at Coinbase - Link
5. Circle Launches Eurocoin - Link
6. Three Arrows Capital is having their Lehman / Bear Sterns Moment - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
You can see above that Bitcoin has not broken above the $48k amount in 2022. I continue to remain bearish short term but I am keeping an eye Bitcoin and I think I will be moving my time horizon out to the end of 2022. What I am really looking for is some evidence of a monetary policy shift from the Fed but we are not there yet and it looks increasingly like we may not get there in 2022. We could see Bitcoin back at its March 2020 lows --in my humble opinion.
Bitcoin: HODL Wave
The chart shows the bundle of all active supply age bands for Bitcoin, aka HODL waves. Each colored band shows the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend. We still have more to go. I personally still think BTC will go back toward
$15,000 $5,000 and potentially back to the March 2020 lows. Forewarned is forearmed.
Bitcoin: Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Net Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is the ratio between realized profit and realized loss. As you can see above the majority that have sold as at a loss on a "net" basis on the lows this prior week. As you can see above the realized losses on increasing but not at the lows of January. The losses are starting to hurt even long time hodlers at this point as we are current in the $19,000 range but it's not showing on the chart above. If we breach $15,800 or so this would be the number roughly before BTC really took off in the last months of 2020.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is now clearly down just like Bitcoin above and you can see here it is way off the highs of the prior weeks and also down the the year of 2022. I think the pending switch the ETH2 will bring significant downward sell pressure as people exit post ETH2 merge lockup.
USD Coin: Circulating Supply
USDC continues its trend with a small drop in circulating supply this week with a clear movement in the direction of use. It seems the market is speaking at least from a US KYC perspective that people (in spite of what they say about decentralization) want a single counter-party that can be trusted to hold the peg to cash. Lets see how this plays out over time.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
TVL continued down an additional 8 Billion to 38.82 Billion this week (on top of the 8 Billion down in TVL last week).
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
Products I Personally Use and Support
Green Tea Tidbits:
The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
This Newsletter does not provide, and no portion of this content purports to be, individualized or specific investment advice and I do not provide investment advice. All information provided herein is general in nature and is made without regard to individual levels of sophistication or investment experience, investment preferences, objectives or risk parameters and without regard to the suitability of the content for individuals or entities who may access it.
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