A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of greentea 🍵 insights
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📖 Book of the Month 📖
This month (or maybe two), I am reading Debt: The First 5,000 Years. If you follow me on Twitter or my prior books you will notice that the Debt topic is top of mind. This is because I think we are nearing some sort of major reset and I want to gain as much knowledge as possible on the history around this topic because no humans alive today have lived through what I think is coming which is a major global debt reset and/or hyperinflation to reduce debt levels. If you are reading along or listening drop me a note on Twitter or email!
Listen to Debt: The First 5,000 Years For Free with Audible. Link
💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
Reflections on this week: I am still noodling over the issue of the seizure of Russian bank reserves and in the context of the Canadian trucker's and donaters accounts being closed / confiscated in Canada. It is apparent to me--these are both two sides of the same coin. If you get on the wrong side of the government (whichever side that may be) they can and will take the money you have on deposit with your bank. Thus, the money you have on deposit in a bank is not actually your money. This is a major concern. I think we will look back in history and see that the destruction of this norm marked a point of no return for global events. As I have been saying---things are way out of hand at this point all sides and I really wish there was a way to dial things back and allow cooler heads to prevail. Alas, it does not appear to me that are at that point in this current three act drama.
US / EU lead Crypto Crackdown: My personal deduction from the facts I see globally--US and EU will use the current conflict to do exactly what I said they would do in my latest CBDC video (see that playlist on Youtube). In short, they will force "cancel culture" style AML/KYC onto the crypto rails in the name of sanction enforcement. See the paragraph above for the inherent problem with this for all of our financial freedom.
Below useful article because it speaks to unintended consequences and knock on effects. For those that recall that acronym PIGS you will recall that the 2011 era banking crisis in Europe was paper over but it's not over. Europe has a very fragile banking system that has been gutted by over a decade of "negative" interest rates. Italy (i) still has arguably the weakest banking system in the EU and UniCredit is a historically weak bank (Greece--don't get me started on Greece) and (ii) Italy imports roughly 40% of its LNG from Russia. We are one Russian nationalization or default away from a full blown European banking contagion that will require the ECB to print cash in the middle of the highest inflation since the WW2 era. - Link
"The rules are what Power says they are, the rules change when Power says they change." - Me. - Link
💸 Companies and Deals I am Watching Closely 💸
1. Sygnum Singapore secures in-principle approval to expand regulated activities - Link
2. Bain Capital Ventures is launching a $560 million Crypto Fund (a.k.a the Boston Big Boys have arrived) - Link
3. Immutable Raises $200M at $2.5B Valuation - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."
-- Mayer Anselm Rothschild, 1790
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
- Santander to offer loans secured by grain-based crypto tokens - Link
2. Virginia Senate passes Bill to allow Banks to offer Crypto and Custody Service - Link
3. Biden Signs Executive Order on Crypto (video deep dive coming soon) - Link
4. State is Coming to Crypto Custody (i.e. Old Boston Money Has Arrived) - Link
5. Coinbase has blocked over 25,000 wallets linked to Russian users - Link📈
Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
Bitcoin: Total Miner Revenue - All Miners
On chain data is basically in a chop pattern or range. As I have said since December 2021 once the Fed starting shifting their policy position larger macro economic factors began to take over as the driving factors and this is now reflected in the on chain data.
Bitcoin Mean Hash Rate:
Updated from last week, you can see the hash rate is remaining relatively stable to flat from last week to this week.
This metric shows the the average estimated number of hashes per second produced by the miners in the network. Recall the "hashrate" is a measure of how fast miners can process the Bitcoin Proof of Work algorithm. With hash rates going up it means there was more miners on the network.
Bitcoin: Price OHLC
As you can see Bitcoin is still chopping around and from last week. If you have read my newsletter since December 2021 when I turned generally bearish (go back and read those editions on the website) because of all the broader macro related factors. I suspect we have more months ahead of range bound activity until some of the major macro economic factors turn and governments generally pivot back to QE = money printing = currency debasement = Bitcoin price "should" move up in a hurry. Some of you have asked where I think BTC could go from here and my personal range is between $16,000 and $24,050 if / when we get some sort of panic sell the bottom style moment. No one knows for certain but this would be with the historical trough which has tended to be 80% down from the peak. Of course, no one knows since none of us alive today as seen how Bitcoin may perform in an era of cyber and hot wars.
Ethereum: Price OHLC
OHLC is the Open, High, Low and Close price. ETH is stuck in the same bearish cycle as Bitcoin.
Total Value Locked (USD) in DeFI
DeFI TVL has bounced a bit this week up from $74 Billion last week. However, as you can see above still down from the December 2021 highs.
As a reminder TVL means "Total Value Locked". This refers to people taking ETH based tokens or other tokens and "locking" them in DeFI protocols to lend, generate yields and otherwise earn excess returns.
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Green Tea Tidbits:
The scientific name for green tea is Camellia Sinensis.
Disclaimer:
This Newsletter does not provide, and no portion of this content purports to be, individualized or specific investment advice and I do not provide investment advice. All information provided herein is general in nature and is made without regard to individual levels of sophistication or investment experience, investment preferences, objectives or risk parameters and without regard to the suitability of the content for individuals or entities who may access it.
No information provided herein, should be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment vehicle, nor should it be construed as tailored or specific to you, or any reader or consumer thereof. You understand and agree that the content does not constitute specific recommendations of any particular investment, security, portfolio, transaction or strategy, nor does it recommend any specific course of action is suitable for any specific person or entity or group of persons or entities.
The content herein is based upon information from sources believed to be reliable and I am not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information; nor is it responsible for the accuracy or authenticity of the information upon which I rely. For informational purposes only. Do your own research.
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