A weekly newsletter on actionable digital asset market insights and practical observations with a smidgen of green tea 🍵 insights
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💭✍🏼 Food For Thought 💭 ✍🏼
A Retail Central Bank Digital Currency: Economic Considerations in the Singapore Context - Link
📖 Quote of the Week 📖:
"It is seldom, that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Slavery has so frightful an aspect to men accustomed to freedom, that it must steal upon them by degrees, and must disguise itself in a thousand shapes, in order to be received." - David Hume from Of the Liberty of the Press
📰 This Weeks Most Interesting Digital Asset News 📰:
1. Circle the US based operator of USDC is launching its Second HQ in Singapore - Link
2. US Department of Justice is Auctioning Off $56 million of seized Crypto from the Bitconnect Ponzi Scheme (great way to buy OTC and not move the market if you are an institution - Link
3. The "Keep Innovation in America" Bill, a bipartisan bill proposed in the house to fix the Biden Plan's Crypto Rule making problems - Link
4. Square Launches its whitepaper for a Decentralized Exchange with a built in modular KYC / AML compliance - Link
📈 Top 10 Market Movements by Market Cap over the last 7 days 📉:
📈 Call Out Digital Asset Charts of The Week 📉:
Note - Stay tuned for my video going in depth on Grayscale and the GBTC product this Thursday
Bitcoin: Grayscale Premium
The premium in the total value of Bitcoin Trust shares (GBTC) to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Trust holdings of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: Grayscale Market Price
The market price per GBTC share.
Litecoin: MVRV Z Score
The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess when Litecoin is over/undervalued relative to its "fair value". When market value is significantly higher than realized value, it has historically indicated a market top (red zone), while the opposite has indicated market bottoms (green zone). Technically, MVRV Z-Score is defined as the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation of market cap, i.e. (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap). If you follow LTC you will note that it tends to trade on a lagging breakout to Bitcoin. I look at this as a pure trading indicator and consider LTC as high beta and high profit potential short term trade only when Bitcoin is in bullish performance. See my prior newsletter for the Bitcoin MVRV Z Score and I will update that data point next week.
Ethereum: Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio (NUPL)
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss.
Ethereum: MVRV Z Score
The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess when Ethereum is over/undervalued relative to its "fair value". When market value is significantly higher than realized value, it has historically indicated a market top (red zone), while the opposite has indicated market bottoms (green zone). Technically, MVRV Z-Score is defined as the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation of market cap, i.e. (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap). Take a note of where the Z Score is now relative to November 2017---its looks ready to break with prices to follow to the upside.
Ethereum: Futures Volume Perpetual
The total volume (USD Value) traded in perpetual (non-expiring) futures contracts in the last 24 hours. I wanted to add this chart as we go into the US holiday week to show you that there is not a lot of derivative leverage in Ethereum--this leverage spiking typically presages as crash because it means traders are greedy and basically have put on too much leverage leading to market liquidations even where there are only small prices drops because so much of the market is off sides. We do not have that situation today, if Ethereum's prices jumps then we should see the leverage jump as well to look more like 27 October 2021.
I hope everyone enjoyed this weeks writeup. I expect some fireworks between Thanksgiving and Year End. Stay Frosty!
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This Newsletter does not provide, and no portion of this content purports to be, individualized or specific investment advice and I do not provide investment advice. All information provided herein is general in nature and is made without regard to individual levels of sophistication or investment experience, investment preferences, objectives or risk parameters and without regard to the suitability of the content for individuals or entities who may access it.
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